Insight into vaccination and meteorological factors on daily COVID-19 cases and mortality in Bangladesh

The ongoing COVID-19 contagious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted global public health, businesses, and economies due to widespread infection, with 676.41 million confirmed cases and 6.77 million deaths in 231 countries as of February 07, 2023. To control the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to determine the potential determinants such as meteorological factors and their roles. This study examines how COVID-19 cases and deaths changed over time while assessing meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the pandemic. We used data spanning two years across all eight administrative divisions, this is the first of its kind––showing a connection between meteorological conditions, vaccination, and COVID-19 incidences in Bangladesh. We further employed several techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), and Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet). We further analyzed the effects of COVID-19 vaccination on daily cases and deaths. Data on COVID-19 cases collected include eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh spanning March 8, 2020, to January 31, 2023, from available online servers. The meteorological data include rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), average temperature (°C), surface pressure (kPa), dew point (°C), and maximum wind speed (m/s). The observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 cases (−0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62 to −0.21) and (−1.31, 95%CI: 2.32 to −0.29), respectively. Similarly, the observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 deaths (−0.87, 95% CI: 1.54 to −0.21) and (−3.11, 95%CI: 4.44 to −1.25), respectively. The impact of meteorological factors is almost similar when vaccination information is included in the model. However, the impact of vaccination in both cases and deaths model is significantly negative (for cases: 1.19, 95%CI: 2.35 to −0.38 and for deaths: 1.55, 95%CI: 2.88 to −0.43). Accordingly, vaccination effectively reduces the number of new COVID-19 cases and fatalities in Bangladesh. Thus, these results could assist future researchers and policymakers in the assessment of pandemics, by making thorough efforts that account for COVID-19 vaccinations and meteorological conditions. Graphical Image 1

Insight into vaccination and meteorological factors on daily COVID-19 cases and mortality in Bangladesh.

The ongoing COVID-19 contagious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted global public health, businesses, and economies due to widespread infection, with 676.41 million confirmed cases and 6.77 million deaths in 231 countries as of February 07, 2023. To control the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to determine the potential determinants such as meteorological factors and their roles. This study examines how COVID-19 cases and deaths changed over time while assessing meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the pandemic. We used data spanning two years across all eight administrative divisions, this is the first of its kind--showing a connection between meteorological conditions, vaccination, and COVID-19 incidences in Bangladesh. We further employed several techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), and Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet). We further analyzed the effects of COVID-19 vaccination on daily cases and deaths. Data on COVID-19 cases collected include eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh spanning March 8, 2020, to January 31, 2023, from available online servers. The meteorological data include rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), average temperature (°C), surface pressure (kPa), dew point (°C), and maximum wind speed (m/s). The observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 cases (-0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62 to -0.21) and (-1.31, 95%CI: 2.32 to -0.29), respectively. Similarly, the observed wind speed and surface pressure show a significant negative impact on COVID-19 deaths (-0.87, 95% CI: 1.54 to -0.21) and (-3.11, 95%CI: 4.44 to -1.25), respectively. The impact of meteorological factors is almost similar when vaccination information is included in the model. However, the impact of vaccination in both cases and deaths model is significantly negative (for cases: 1.19, 95%CI: 2.35 to -0.38 and for deaths: 1.55, 95%CI: 2.88 to -0.43). Accordingly, vaccination effectively reduces the number of new COVID-19 cases and fatalities in Bangladesh. Thus, these results could assist future researchers and policymakers in the assessment of pandemics, by making thorough efforts that account for COVID-19 vaccinations and meteorological conditions.

An opinion on Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring (WBEM) with Clinical Diagnostic Test (CDT) for detecting high-prevalence areas of community COVID-19 Infections.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring (WBEM) is an efficient surveillance tool during the COVID-19 pandemic as it meets all requirements of a complete monitoring system including early warning, tracking the current trend, prevalence of the disease, detection of genetic diversity as well asthe up-surging SARS-CoV-2 new variants with mutations from the wastewater samples. Subsequently, Clinical Diagnostic Test is widely acknowledged as the global gold standard method for disease monitoring, despite several drawbacks such as high diagnosis cost, reporting bias, and the difficulty of tracking asymptomatic patients (silent spreaders of the COVID-19 infection who manifest nosymptoms of the disease). In this current reviewand opinion-based study, we first propose a combined approach) for detecting COVID-19 infection in communities using wastewater and clinical sample testing, which may be feasible and effective as an emerging public health tool for the long-term nationwide surveillance system. The viral concentrations in wastewater samples can be used as indicatorsto monitor ongoing SARS-CoV-2 trends, predict asymptomatic carriers, and detect COVID-19 hotspot areas, while clinical sampleshelp in detecting mostlysymptomaticindividuals for isolating positive cases in communities and validate WBEM protocol for mass vaccination including booster doses for COVID-19.

A 30-day follow-up study on the prevalence of SARS-COV-2 genetic markers in wastewater from the residence of COVID-19 patient and comparison with clinical positivity.

Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) is an important tool to fight against COVID-19 as it provides insights into the health status of the targeted population from a small single house to a large municipality in a cost-effective, rapid, and non-invasive way. The implementation of wastewater based surveillance (WBS) could reduce the burden on the public health system, management of pandemics, help to make informed decisions, and protect public health. In this study, a house with COVID-19 patients was targeted for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic markers in wastewater samples (WS) with clinical specimens (CS) for a period of 30 days. RT-qPCR technique was employed to target nonstructural (ORF1ab) and structural-nucleocapsid (N) protein genes of SARS-CoV-2, according to a validated experimental protocol. Physiological, environmental, and biological parameters were also measured following the American Public Health Association (APHA) standard protocols. SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in wastewater peaked when the highest number of COVID-19 cases were clinically diagnosed. Throughout the study period, 7450 to 23,000 gene copies/1000 mL were detected, where we identified 47 % (57/120) positive samples from WS and 35 % (128/360) from CS. When the COVID-19 patient number was the lowest (2), the highest CT value (39.4; i.e., lowest copy number) was identified from WS. On the other hand, when the COVID-19 patients were the highest (6), the lowest CT value (25.2 i.e., highest copy numbers) was obtained from WS. An advance signal of increased SARS-CoV-2 viral load from the COVID-19 patient was found in WS earlier than in the CS. Using customized primer sets in a traditional PCR approach, we confirmed that all SARS-CoV-2 variants identified in both CS and WS were Delta variants (B.1.617.2). To our knowledge, this is the first follow-up study to determine a temporal relationship between COVID-19 patients and their discharge of SARS-CoV-2 RNA genetic markers in wastewater from a single house including all family members for clinical sampling from a developing country (Bangladesh), where a proper sewage system is lacking. The salient findings of the study indicate that monitoring the genetic markers of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater could identify COVID-19 cases, which reduces the burden on the public health system during COVID-19 pandemics.

Wastewater-based epidemiological surveillance to monitor the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in developing countries with onsite sanitation facilities.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a valuable approach for forecasting disease outbreaks in developed countries with a centralized sewage infrastructure. On the other hand, due to the absence of well-defined and systematic sewage networks, WBE is challenging to implement in developing countries like Bangladesh where most people live in rural areas. Identification of appropriate locations for rural Hotspot Based Sampling (HBS) and urban Drain Based Sampling (DBS) are critical to enable WBE based monitoring system. We investigated the best sampling locations from both urban and rural areas in Bangladesh after evaluating the sanitation infrastructure for forecasting COVID-19 prevalence. A total of 168 wastewater samples were collected from 14 districts of Bangladesh during each of the two peak pandemic seasons. RT-qPCR commercial kits were used to target ORF1ab and N genes. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic materials was found in 98% (165/168) and 95% (160/168) wastewater samples in the first and second round sampling, respectively. Although wastewater effluents from both the marketplace and isolation center drains were found with the highest amount of genetic materials according to the mixed model, quantifiable SARS-CoV-2 RNAs were also identified in the other four sampling sites. Hence, wastewater samples of the marketplace in rural areas and isolation centers in urban areas can be considered the appropriate sampling sites to detect contagion hotspots. This is the first complete study to detect SARS-CoV-2 genetic components in wastewater samples collected from rural and urban areas for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic. The results based on the study revealed a correlation between viral copy numbers in wastewater samples and SARS-CoV-2 positive cases reported by the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) as part of the national surveillance program for COVID-19 prevention. The findings of this study will help in setting strategies and guidelines for the selection of appropriate sampling sites, which will facilitate in development of comprehensive wastewater-based epidemiological systems for surveillance of rural and urban areas of low-income countries with inadequate sewage infrastructure.

A Review on Measures to Rejuvenate Immune System: Natural Mode of Protection Against Coronavirus Infection.

SARS-CoV-2, a novel Corona virus strain, was first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of December 16, 2021, almost 4,822,472 people had died and over 236,132,082 were infected with this lethal viral infection. It is believed that the human immune system is thought to play a critical role in the initial phase of infection when the viruses invade the host cells. Although some effective vaccines have already been on the market, researchers and many bio-pharmaceuticals are still working hard to develop a fully functional vaccine or more effective therapeutic agent against the COVID-19. Other efforts, in addition to functional vaccines, can help strengthen the immune system to defeat the corona virus infection. Herein, we have reviewed some of those proven measures, following which a more efficient immune system can be better prepared to fight viral infection. Among these, dietary supplements like- fresh vegetables and fruits offer a plentiful of vitamins and antioxidants, enabling to build of a healthy immune system. While the pharmacologically active components of medicinal plants directly aid in fighting against viral infection, supplementary supplements combined with a healthy diet will assist to regulate the immune system and will prevent viral infection. In addition, some personal habits, like- regular physical exercise, intermittent fasting, and adequate sleep, had also been proven to aid the immune system in becoming an efficient one. Maintaining each of these will strengthen the immune system, allowing innate immunity to become a more defensive and active antagonistic mechanism against corona-virus infection. However, because dietary treatments take longer to produce beneficial effects in adaptive maturation, personalized nutrition cannot be expected to have an immediate impact on the global outbreak.

First detection of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material in the vicinity of COVID-19 isolation Centre in Bangladesh: Variation along the sewer network.

We made the first and successful attempt to detect SARS-CoV-2 genetic material in the vicinity wastewaters of an isolation centre i.e. Shaheed Bhulu Stadium, situated at Noakhali, Southeastern Bangladesh. Owing to the fact that isolation centre, in general, always contained a constant number of 200 COVID-19 patients, the prime objective of the study was to check if several drains carrying RNA of coronavirus are actually getting diluted or accumulated along with the sewage network. Our finding suggested that while the temporal variation of the genetic load decreased in small drains over the span of 50 days, the main sewer exhibited accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Other interesting finding displays that probably distance of sampling location in meters is not likely to have a significant impact on the detected gene concentration, although the quantity of the RNA extracted in the downstream of the drain was higher. These findings are of immense value from the perspective of wastewater surveillance of COVID-19, as they largely imply that we do not need to monitor every wastewater system, and probably major drains monitoring may illustrate the city health. Perhaps, we are reporting the accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material along with the sewer network i.e. from primary to tertiary drains. The study sought further data collection in this line to simulate conditions prevailed in most of the developing countries and to shed further light on decay/accumulation processes of the genetic load of the SARS-COV-2.